Jonathan Millar 
Anil Krishna 
James Oconner 
© 20th Century Studios
On paper, The Dog Stars looked like the kind of movie that should at least have had a decent shot in theaters. It had Ridley Scott directing, Jacob Elordi and Margaret Qualley in the lead roles, and a post-apocalyptic story based on Peter Heller’s novel. That is a pretty easy package to sell. Instead, the film stumbled almost immediately, according to Variety, bringing in only $19.3 million worldwide during its opening weekend against a reported production budget somewhere between $70 million and $110 million. For a movie that expensive, that’s a rough start, and it becomes even harder to explain away when you look at the film’s reviews, competition and marketing.
The Reviews Didn’t Help
For an original science-fiction movie, reviews and word of mouth matter a lot. There isn’t a giant franchise behind it telling people they have to see the next chapter, so the audience has to actually want to recommend the thing to their friends. The Dog Stars never really got that push. The movie opened with a 39% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes, which isn’t exactly the sort of number that makes a hesitant viewer rush out to buy a ticket. Audiences weren’t particularly impressed either, with the film receiving a C+ CinemaScore. Once those first reactions were out, the movie had very little positive buzz to build on, and that is a bad place to be when you’re trying to keep an expensive original film alive for several weeks.
It Had Some Very Big Competition
The release date probably didn’t do the film any favors either. The Dog Stars arrived while audiences were already spending their money on much bigger theatrical attractions. Spider-Man: Brand New Day was still pulling in enormous crowds after crossing the $2 billion mark worldwide, while Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey continued to perform strongly. There were other options too, including Coyote vs. Acme for families and the R-rated horror comedy Buddy for people looking for something a little weirder. None of these movies needed to be direct competitors for The Dog Stars to feel the effect. When people only have so much time and money for movie tickets, an unfamiliar post-apocalyptic drama is going to have a harder time convincing them to skip the big event movie.
Elordi and Qualley Aren’t Quite There Yet
The casting also looks stronger on paper than it does as a box-office selling point. Jacob Elordi and Margaret Qualley are both well-known performers with plenty of critical attention behind them. Elordi has Euphoria and other high-profile projects, while Qualley has built a strong reputation through films such as The Substance. But being recognizable and being able to open a $100 million movie are two very different things. Neither actor has really reached the point where their name alone guarantees a huge theatrical audience, especially for an unfamiliar story. With the reviews already mixed, there wasn’t much else giving casual moviegoers a reason to take the gamble.
The Marketing Never Quite Explained the Movie
Then there was the marketing, which may have been one of the bigger problems. The trailers and promotional material didn’t seem to give audiences a particularly clear idea of what The Dog Stars actually was or why they needed to see it on a big screen. Post-apocalyptic movies are hardly rare these days, and with The Last of Us still fresh in people’s minds, simply saying “the world ended and people are trying to survive” isn’t enough. The film needed a sharper identity. Disney’s advertising campaign also appeared relatively restrained for a movie carrying such a large budget, leading to speculation that the studio knew it had a difficult theatrical road ahead and wasn’t willing to spend even more money trying to fix it.
The Budget Made Everything Worse
Ultimately, though, the budget may have been the biggest problem of all. A $70 million to $110 million production cost is a lot to recover from when you’re dealing with an original, R-rated science-fiction drama that doesn’t have an established franchise audience. A movie doesn’t simply need to earn its production budget at the box office either; theaters take a cut, and marketing adds another major expense. So once The Dog Stars opened at just $19.3 million worldwide, the path to profitability became extremely difficult.
That’s the frustrating part. The movie didn’t necessarily need to be a giant blockbuster to work. A smaller, more tightly controlled budget could have given it room to breathe and allowed strong reviews or word of mouth to turn it into a sleeper hit. Instead, the film seems to have landed in that uncomfortable middle ground where it cost too much to be a modest genre movie but didn’t have the franchise, stars or critical enthusiasm needed to behave like a blockbuster. And once that happens, even Ridley Scott’s name isn’t always enough to save a film.
About the Author
